Background
Activity 1: Projecting Future Climate Conditions & Assessing Canopy Tree Migration
Climate change is already reshaping Ontario’s forests by altering growing conditions, shifting species ranges, and increasing pressure on ecosystems that have evolved over thousands of years. For conservation organizations responsible for long-term land stewardship, understanding these changes is essential to making informed decisions both now and in the future.
This first phase of the project applies climate projections and ecological land classification data to BTC-managed properties along the Niagara Escarpment. Dominant canopy tree species, including sugar maple, white cedar, red oak, hemlock, trembling aspen, and white ash, were analyzed as ecological indicators of long-term forest viability.
Goal
To assess how projected climate conditions may alter forest suitability and canopy tree species composition across BTC lands, providing a science-based foundation for climate-adaptive stewardship.
What’s Next?
Building on this climate suitability assessment, the next phases of the project will expand from site-level climate analysis to landscape-scale planning and restoration guidance.
Activity 2: Habitat Fragmentation & Corridor Design
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Analyze habitat fragmentation across BTC lands
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Identify priority areas to strengthen ecological connectivity
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Design climate-informed corridors that facilitate species movement under shifting conditions
Activity 3: Climate-Smart Restoration Best Practices
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Develop restoration guidance for deciduous forests, mixed forests, and mixed meadows
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Integrate climate projections into species selection and planting strategies
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Support adaptive restoration approaches that enhance long-term ecosystem resilience along the Niagara Escarpment